As Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) soared to over $300 per share, I kept tabs on Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter's reports on the stock. Over the years, Pachter has been right about Netflix more often than he's been wrong. But, more importantly, he provides the type of clear headed analysis you just don't get from the parade of bulls who got it all wrong. As the dust settles around Netflix's disastrous Q3 report, I think it proves instructive to see what Pachter said shortly after the latest implosion. In a report where he called Netflix A Riddle Wrapped Up In An Enigma, Pachter wrote the following: Investors have come to rely upon company management to deliver sustainable subscriber growth while delivering consistently higher earnings, with earnings growth of 25% or more having been the norm for the last several years . While Netflix will once again likely grow earnings in 2011, company management has made the affirmative decision to forego earnings for few quarters in 2012 while the company aggressively invests in International expansion. This strategy is at odds with the company previously stated strategy of growing earnings first, and investing earnings in its expansion . We view yesterday announcement as an act of desperation. Netflix management appears frenzied to grow at all costs, and the company shares dropped precipitously from already low levels, as investors in the after market voted by selling. We are at a loss to explain the company zeal to expand without regard to profitability, especially when the decision is at odds with the company formula of the last few years. It appears that Netflix management is in a race with itself to establish global dominance, apparently believing that a much larger, if unprofitable company has greater value. We disagree. In our view, Netflix attained its lofty share price earlier this year because investors viewed the company phenomenal subscriber growth as a proxy for the phenomenal earnings growth that they thought was certain to follow . As usual, Pachter cogently sets the scene. As NFLX wages a near term battle with $90, it's important to put things in perspective and consider the magnitude of what has happened here. This company is about to lose money. The one reason why investors tagged it with such a lofty premium is because it always put profits first. Now, as Pachter discusses, the company intends to do the opposite by sacrificing profits in favor of international expansion and content spending that cloaks the future in uncertainty. As I watch the stock refuse to break support around $90, I can't help but wonder when one of the next several shoes will drop. Netflix does not report Q4 earnings until the end of January. I have no confidence whatsoever in management's subscriber forecast for the quarter. In fact, I fully expect that the company will need to issue downside or upside subscriber guidance before the end of the year, much like it did ahead of Q3. That could be shoe number one. Shoe number two comes with the Q4 report. Any ounce of positive news with either event could send the stock back toward and possibly past $100. Given the number of defenders who have come out of the woodwork at this stage, I would not be surprised by any level of upside the stock shows, no matter how big. The color Netflix provides for 2012, however, holds the key to the company's future. So far, management has only told us that it expects Netflix to lose money beginning in Q1 2012. The size of that loss and how long the company expects to be in the red will dictate how much lower the stock goes. Remember this off balance sheet obligations related to streaming content acquisition grew by about $1 billion between Q2 and Q3. As Netflix continues to spruce up the bottom lines of companies like CBS (NYSE:CBS) and sign more content deals, expect that number to continue to grow exponentially. Save a handful of bears, it's pretty much been left unsaid that even if management never erred, Netflix never stood a chance of covering those costs while maintaining profitability on the back of even solid domestic subscriber growth. As such, the focus now shifts to international subscriber growth. Like Pachter explains, Netflix, having abandoned profitability, now puts all of its eggs in one basket it desperately needs unprecedented success internationally to survive. (And, in the words of Jerry Seinfeld, "There's no precedent, baby!"). For Q4, the company only expects to grow its international base by between 120,000 and 520,000 subscribers. If it hits the top end of that range that's a paltry 1.96% increase in international net additions between Q3 and Q4. Of course, if it comes in anywhere below the high point of its guidance, it will actually show a percentage decrease in net additions between quarters. From Q2 to Q3, international net additions increased by 52.6%. Talk about a soft launch. But it does not expect considerable adoption to happen in the early stages of this expansion. The notion that Canada has been a success is little more than wishful thinking. Up until last quarter, Netflix saw international net additions decline in the periods Q4 2010 to Q1 2011 and Q1 2011 to Q2 2011. If Netflix's new international markets follow the same trajectory as Canada, the experiment does not stand a chance. I predicted that Netflix would lower guidance and eventually report EPS losses back in July: If Netflix does not miss this quarter, I believe it will report EPS to the low end of its range. I fully expect an earnings miss or further significant downside guidance over the next several quarters (emphasis added). And now, put me down for another prediction. Netflix will pull out of one or more international markets by the end of 2012 as it struggles to avoid insolvency and remain a going concern. Men Nike Free Run 2 Purple Gold White ,Men Nike Free Run 2 Drench Blue Orange White Men Nike Free Run 2 Anthracite Black White Red Women Free Run 3 Prism Blue Reflective Silver Pure Platinum Volt Men Nike Free Run 3.0 V4 Wolf Grey Game Royalblue Wolf Grey Men Nike Free Run 4.0 V2 Light Charcoal Silver Chrome Yellow Men Nike Free Run 3.0 V4 Dark Grey Wolf Grey Men Nike Free Run 2 Anthracite Black White Red Men Nike Free Run 3.0 Chrome Yellow Reflect Silver Platinum White Men Nike Free Run 2 Shield Grey Black Turquoise Grey I am just curious how much everyone spends for shoes for their grade school aged kid? I'm mainly talking about tennis shoes, or the main shoe they wear. My kids have lots of cheap sandles/flip flops too, but I feel like I should be spending more on their main tennis shoe. I don't know if I haven't been paying attention or what, but I went to Kohl's last night and bought DD a pair of Nike's and they were $50. I guess I always remembered spending $25 $30/pair for her so this just seemed like a lot. I do want her to a decent pair of tennis shoes so I am fine with this, but just wondering what others spend? My kids are in preschool but I spend a lot on their "every day" shoes ($50 70 if not on sale). They each have a good pair of tennis shoes and a good pair of casual shoes (black for the girls and brown for my son). Other shoes that they may only wear on occasion, I spend less on. But all their shoes provide support and protection. My mother grew up in an era of poorly fitting hand me down shoes and she has always been adamant that we wear good shoes. She has terrible feet because of bad shoes. While I know it's my own issue, I still cringe when I see kids wearing cheap flip flops and plastic shoes with no support. Men Nike Free Run 2 Purple Gold White,At Effingham. Centennial defeated Jonesboro (Ark.) Valley View 25 21, 25 18 for the title of the Crossroads Classic. To reach the title match, the Chargers rallied to beat Wheaton St. Francis 14 25, 25 11, 25 21. Centennial's Lauren Cloyd was named tournament MVP. She was joined on the all tournament team by fellow Chargers Kelsey Olion and Rachel Jones. At Mahomet. Champaign Central capped a 5 0 run to the Bulldog Invitational title with a 25 27, 25 23, 15 13 victory against Williamsville. Kailyn Demith and Jaelyn Wesfield of the Maroons were named to the all tournament team, as were Alayna Jackson (27 kills) of Urbana, Elise Dahlke of Mahomet Seymour and Shelby Simmons of St. Joseph Ogden. At Arthur. Arthur Lovington did not lose a set while going 4 0 to win its own invitational tournament. A L (8 0) was led on the attack by Karly Goodman (26 kills) and Jessica Davis (24 kills). Julia Cohen contributed nine service aces and 16 kills for the champions, while teammate Ashley Tabb totaled 18 digs. At Westville. Urbana University High earned the title of the Westville Invitational via a tiebreaker. The Illineks, Chrisman and Westville each finished 3 1 in the round robin event, but Uni was declared the champion based on most sets won (seven). Emma Hoyer had 46 kills for the Illineks. Brett Bishop of Chrisman totaled 26 kills, seven blocks and four service aces. At Clinton. The host Maroons defeated Heyworth 25 17, 25 5 in the championship match of the Clinton Invitational. Tournament MVP Morgan Hickman of Clinton finished the event with 93 assists and 52 digs. Teammate Taylor Filkin, who also made the all tournament team, totaled 47 kills and six blocks. Gabby Pearl had 20 kills and 7.5 blocks for fourth place Blue Ridge. At Shelbyville. Kaitlyn Hunt of Monticello was named to the Shelbyville Invitational all tournament team. The Sages finished sixth in the eight team event. Watseka 2, GCMS 0. The host Warriors improved to 13 0 with a 25 16, 25 17 win. Taylor Bauer and Emily Allhands combined for 19 kills for Watseka. Allyson Barnes had 13 digs for the Falcons. Urbana 4 Edwardsville 2. The Tigers built a 3 0 halftime lead en route to a home win. Brian Lopez and Jonathan Lukusa each had two goals and one assist for Urbana. Goalkeeper Brian Summers recorded six saves. Urbana Uni High 4, Teutopolis 1. George Voulgaris scored a goal and assisted on two others for host the Illineks. Tarik Koric had a goal and an assist. St. Thomas More 1, Blue Ridge 0. Josh Koerner scored in the second half on an assist by Daniel Shin to lift the Sabers to a home win. Koerner's goal was his second in as many matches. St. Joseph Ogden 4, Oakwood 0. Cameron Harpst scored twice and had an assist, leading the host Spartans. Goalkeeper Kyle Roedl made seven saves in a shutout performance. Mahomet Seymour 3, Charleston 1. Brennen Kraft's unassisted goal in the second half proved to be the winner for the visiting Bulldogs. Tyler Moxley assisted on two M S goals. Danville 1, Jacksonville 0. Gracson Torres scored on an assist from Chase Thurston and Cameron Griffin preserved a shutout with 12 saves, leading the Vikings to a home win. Normal Community 4, Centennial 0. The host Chargers (3 1 1) were unable to score on any of their five shots on goal in their first loss of the season. Schlarman 0, Fisher/GCMS 0. Chris Kuchefski racked up 17 saves for the host Hilltoppers in the scoreless tie. Darren Eckerty had four saves for Fisher/GCMS. At Springfield. Champion Jonathan Schaap led a 1 4 5 finish by Mahomet Seymour runners that carried the Bulldogs to second place in the 18 team Lanphier Invitational. Schaap completed the 3 mile race in 15 minutes, 24.22 seconds, holding off runner up Marc Maton (15:26.64) of Chatham Glenwood. Forrest Smoes (fourth) and Ethan Russell (fifth) joined teammate Schaap in the top five. Johnny Leverenz finished third (15:35.68) for 10th place Danville. At Peoria. Andrew Hanselman led Monticello to third place in the 44 team Class A division of the First to the Finish Invitational. Hanselman finished eighth in 15:43. George Gunter was the top runner for 10th place Uni High, finishing 46th. Centennial's Aaron Miller was the top area runner in the Class AA meet, placing 41st. At Springfield. Mahomet Seymour placed three runners in the top 17, including runner up Lauren Whitehouse, and finished sixth in the 13 team Lanphier Invitational. Mercedes Elliott finished sixth for eighth place Danville. Other top 20 individuals included M S' Tessa Hanlon (15th) and Abigail Nielsen (17th), and Danville's Kim Carter (19th). At Peoria. Led by Hannah Houska, Monticello finished second in the 40 team Class A division of the First to the Finish Invitational. Houska was sixth in 18:38. Other Sages in the top 20: Madison Tutich (18th) and Emily Foley (19th). In Class AA, Hannah Wright placed 30th in 19:07 for Champaign Central, which finished 24th in the 46 team field. At Mattoon. Taylor Ellis finished first in singles for team champion Danville at the Mattoon Invitational. The Vikings doubles team of Neha Patel and Courtney Hart also placed first. At Mattoon. Issac Overman shot a team best 80 for Centennial, which finished 17th in the 18 team Mattoon Invitational. Tyler Ellis (92) was the top scorer for 18th place Danville. At Champaign. Normal Community won all 12 events in rolling to a 133 53 victory against Champaign Central at Unit 4 Pool. Katherine Penwell (200 yard individual medley) and Sara McGill (100 butterfly) placed second in individual events and swam on the Maroons' runner up 200 medley relay. At Springfield. Maddie Nelson of Urbana University High finished second in the 500 freestyle at the Capital City Invitational. Centennial's Remy Miller placed third in the 100 free.
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